China’s Communist Party has shifted its monetary policy stance to “moderately loose” from “prudent” for the first time since 2009. The announcement, made by the Politburo on Monday, comes as part of a broader effort to bolster China’s slowing economy and address mounting deflationary pressures.
The shift was revealed ahead of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, where officials are expected to outline China’s economic agenda for 2025. The Politburo, chaired by President Xi Jinping, called for “more proactive fiscal policies” and “extraordinary countercyclical adjustments” to stimulate demand, boost investment, and support consumption.
China has already implemented several stimulus measures in recent months, including a RMB 10 trillion (US$1.4 trillion) debt swap plan in early November aimed at helping local governments clear arrears.
Market reaction and investor sentiment
The announcement sent bond yields and stock prices soaring, with China’s 10-year government bond yield falling to a record low of 1.92%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 3.14%.
Australian miners saw a modest boost from the anticipated increase in demand for construction, infrastructure and manufacturing commodities. BHP Group (ASX:BHP) closed 3.05% higher at $41.83 on Tuesday, Fortescue (ASX:FMG) closed 6.23% higher at $20.45, Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) closed 6.51% higher at $2.29, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) closed 4.85% higher at $125.28, South32 (ASX:S32) closed 2.22% higher at $3.68 and Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) closed 3.48% higher at $6.55. The sector as a whole closed 3.04% higher.
Treasury Wine Estates closed 4% higher at $11.95.
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman described the announcement as encouraging, stating that “to escape the debt-deflation loop, Chinese policymakers need to ramp up fiscal measures to boost consumption.”
Morgan Stanley economists noted that this was the first time the term “extraordinary” had been applied to countercyclical adjustments, and also pointed out that the addition of “more” to the description of proactive fiscal policy,
Current economic pressures
The change in policy comes amid growing signs of deflation. Consumer prices rose just 0.2% year-on-year in November, well below market expectations of a 0.5% rise, while producer prices fell 2.5% year-on-year, continuing a two-year streak of falling factory gate prices.
China’s property market, once a key driver of growth, continues to weigh on household wealth, eroding consumer confidence.
Job insecurity also remains a significant headwind. Youth unemployment rates have stayed in double digits, while broader unemployment climbed to 5.1% in September, up from 4.7% in 2023.
Economic stimulus measures
Some economists believe China could introduce rate cuts, reserve ratio reductions, and other measures aimed at encouraging spending and investment.
Past monetary easing measures included October cuts to the loan prime rate (LPR), with the one-year LPR reduced from 3.35% to 3.10%, while the five-year LPR fell from 3.85% to 3.60%.
Economists, however, are split on whether this latest policy shift will result in significantly stronger action. Many expect it to provide a symbolic boost to market confidence, but questions remain about whether concrete measures will follow.